Breaking Down the Vikings Playoff Scenarios

With three weeks remaining, where do the Vikings sit?

The Minnesota Vikings currently occupy the #6 seed in the NFC at 7-7. According to the NY Times playoff prediction simulator, the Vikings have a 51% chance to make the playoffs. Three games remain for the Vikings. All three are divisional games:

Week 16: Lions (home)
Week 17: Packers (home)
Week 18: Lions (road)

Here’s the NFC playoff picture after week 15 courtesy of the ESPN playoff machine (currently buggy).

In addition to these 7 teams, the following teams are also in the playoff hunt:

Seattle: 7-7
New Orleans*: 7-7
Green Bay: 6-8
Atlanta*: 6-8
Chicago: 5-9
New York Giants: 5-9

*Tampa Bay, New Orleans and Atlanta are also in contention for the NFC South Division winner playoff spot, currently occupied by Tampa Bay. While the Vikings cannot win this spot, this race is nonetheless relevant to them as the winner is removed from competing for a wild-card spot.

San Francisco, Dallas, and Philadelphia have already locked up playoff spots. Detroit can theoretically miss the playoffs but the odds are extremely low, significantly less than 1%. I’m going to ignore that possibility since the only way Detroit can miss involves the Vikings making the playoffs anyway. Detroit therefore occupies a 4th NFC playoff spot.

With the 5th slot reserved for the NFC South Division winner, the Vikings are competing for the final two playoff slots. I’ll cover the various ways that can play out.

I will note that I’m ignoring the possibilities for games to end in a tie in any of these calculations. If a tie happens, then I’ll reassess, but I’m not banking on it or thinking about it unless I have to.

Vikings Win the NFC North

Let’s start with an unlikely scenario. If the Vikings beat the Lions twice and beat the Packers week 17 and the Lions also lose to the Cowboys week 17, the Vikings win the NFC North division and will host a round one playoff game.

Odds of this happening: 4%

If this does happen: The Vikings can’t possibly earn either the #1 or #2 seed in the NFC. 82%* of the time, they will be the #3 seed. Their most likely round 1 playoff opponent would be Detroit (78%). The other 18%* of the time they will be the #4 seed. Their most likely round 1 playoff opponent would be Dallas (59%).

*Tampa Bay winning the NFC South at 10-7 is the only scenario where the Vikings are 4th seed in this hypothetical.

Vikings Compete for a Wild-Card Spot

The most likely situation for the Vikings is that they will be competing for the 6th or 7th seed in the NFC. I’m going to first provide a broad overview of the basic information, and then delve deeper into tiebreaker scenarios, other teams competing for these spots, and important results from other games.

As things stand right now, the Vikings chances for each seed are:

5th seed: <1%
6th seed: 25%
7th seed: 19%

If the Vikings finish in the 6th seed, their most likely opponent would be the Detroit Lions (74%). If the Vikings finish in the 7th seed, their most likely opponent would be the Philadelphia Eagles (46%).

Here’s a breakdown of the Vikings playoff chances depending on how they do in each remaining game:

3-0: 100%
2-1: 98% - Vikings make playoffs unless either 1. Rams and Seahawks both finish 3-0 or 2. one of Rams and Seahawks finish 3-0 and Saints go 3-0 and Bucs go 2-1
1-2, beat GB: 44% - Vikings need to get in the muck with other 8-9 teams and come out on top via their superior tiebreakers. Hard but possible.
1-2, lose to GB: 26% - A loss opens the door for GB to own the tiebreaker over the Vikings, significantly reducing chances of coming out on top of 8-9 tiebreakers.
0-3: <1%

The Vikings control their own destiny. If they win out, they’re in no matter what. Even if they only win 2 games, they’re in 98% of the time, and just need a small bit of help. The reason this number is so high is that the Vikings own the tiebreaker against nearly every other NFC team in the hunt. At a 9-8 record or better, the Buccaneers are the only team who can beat the Vikings in a tiebreaker, and that’s unlikely to occur as Tampa Bay would likely win their own division at that record.

There is a fringe scenario where the Vikings can make the playoffs at 7-10, but it involves a lot of games having extremely specific results and is significantly less than 1% likely to happen. I’m going to completely ignore that possibility from now on and assume that 7-10 misses the playoffs, meaning all of my tiebreaker calculations are based on the assumption that the Vikings will be tying other teams with a record of 8-9 or better. Let’s be honest, they don’t deserve to make the playoffs at 7-10 anyway.

Basic Tiebreakers vs Relevant Teams

Here’s a link to an explanation of how ties are broken.

The Vikings control the tiebreaker over the following teams:

Bears (Common Games)
Giants (Common Games)
Rams (Common Games)
Saints (Head-to-Head)
Falcons (Head-to-Head)

It’s yet to be determined who will win the tiebreaker between the Vikings and the following teams:

Packers
Seahawks

The Vikings lose the tiebreaker against the following teams:

Buccaneers (Head-to-Head)

In-Depth Tiebreakers and Breakdown of Relevant Teams

Bears (5-9) - Make Playoffs: 2%
Giants (5-9) - Make Playoffs: <1%

At worst, the Vikings will own the tiebreaker vs both of these teams via record in common games.

I’ve lumped these teams together because the scenario is the same for both. Both teams are 5-9 and the best they can do is tie the Vikings at 8-9 in a relevant situation (recall that we’re assuming the Vikings miss the playoffs at 7-10 and only considering 8-9 or better scenarios). Since neither team can surpass the Vikings win total and the Vikings control the tiebreaker against both teams, neither team poses any threat toward the Vikings making the playoffs. In fact, both teams can only help the Vikings get in. The Bears have upcoming games against the Falcons and Packers and the Giants play the Rams. Wins in any of those games improve the Vikings playoff odds.

Rams (7-7) - Make Playoffs: 48%

The Vikings currently own the tiebreaker over the Rams via conference record. In the worst case scenario, the Vikings would claim it via record in common games.

The Rams are the most threatening team for the Vikings despite having worse tiebreakers, because they have a realistic chance to surpass the Vikings win total. The Rams have won four of their last five games and the lone loss was to the AFC’s best team, the Baltimore Ravens, in overtime. The Rams appear to be the best team fighting for these last few playoff spots, and there’s a pretty realistic chance they win all of their remaining games. They are favored against the Saints and Giants and might get an easy week 18 matchup against the 49ers if the 49ers have locked up a 1st round bye and choose to rest their starters.

Saints (7-7) - Win Division: 27% - Wild-Card: 12%

The Vikings own the tiebreaker vs. the Saints via head-to-head record.

The Saints are an interesting team in this situation. The Saints last three games are all against other teams vying for these playoff spots. They play the Rams in week 16, Buccaneers in week 17, and Falcons in week 18. The Saints are not only in the mix for a wild-card spot but also for the NFC South division crown and the 4th seed.

The Saints don’t pose a significant threat to the Vikings playoff chances directly. For one, their last three games are all against other playoff hopeful teams and it’s unlikely they win them all. Secondly, even if the Saints do go on an end of season run, it just means they’re more likely to win the NFC South division spot instead instead of occupying a higher wild-card spot than the Vikings.

With that being said, the Saints have a powerful indirect impact on the Vikings playoff chances, by how they interact with other playoff hopeful teams. In the best case scenario, where the Saints beat the Rams and lose to the Bucs and Falcons, the Vikings playoff chances increase from 51% all the way to 69%. Nice! In the reverse scenario, the Viking playoff chances dip to 43%.

Falcons (6-8) - Win Division: 6% - Wild-Card: 2%

The Vikings own the tiebreaker vs. the Falcons via head-to-head record.

The Falcons have very little impact on the Vikings playoff chances. At 6-8 they’re low risk to overtake the Vikings in win record, and even should they end up going 9-8, they’d have a 42% chance of just winning their division anyway.

Buccaneers (7-7) - Win Division: 69% - Wild-Card: 8%

The Buccaneers own the tiebreaker over the Vikings via head-to-head record.

However, the Vikings win a lot of multi-team tiebreaker situations over the Bucs, thanks to a currently superior conference record. Even though the Buccaneers are the only team to definitively own a direct tiebreaker against Minnesota, there aren’t many scenarios where that ends up being relevant, and as a result the Buccaneers have a fairly low impact on the Vikings playoff odds. The most impactful game is week 17 against the Saints. If the Buccaneers win, they all but lock up the NFC South divisional title, which avoids a few nightmare scenarios where the Vikings might lose a direct tiebreaker to Tampa Bay.

Packers (6-8) - Make Playoffs: 22%

The Vikings currently own the tiebreaker (head-to-head) over the Packers, but it’s possible for the Packers to claim it.

If the Vikings beat the Packers in week 17, then there is no scenario where the Packers can threaten the Vikings for a playoff spot. If the Vikings lose to the Packers, but sweep the Lions, there is again no scenario where the Packers can threaten the Vikings for a playoff spot. Additionally, regardless of what happens in any other game, if the Packers lose to the Bears, there is no scenario where they can threaten the Vikings for a playoff spot.

The one relevant scenario where the Packers claim the tiebreaker over the Vikings is if they beat both the Vikings and Bears and the Vikings split games 1-1 against the Lions. The Packers would then own the tiebreaker via division record and likely eliminate the Vikings from the playoffs altogether.

The Packers week 16 game vs. Carolina doesn’t matter in any scenario, save one: It’s possible the Vikings tiebreaker against the Seahawks comes down to strength of victory, in which case it’s actually better if the Packers win over Carolina.

Even though it’s unlikely that the Packers directly threaten the Vikings for a playoff spot, they still remain one of the most relevant teams for the Vikings simply by being an upcoming opponent. A Vikings win over Green Bay improves their playoff odds from 51% to 75%, regardless of anything else that happens.

Seahawks (7-7) - Make Playoffs: 54%

The Vikings currently own the tiebreaker (conference record) over the Seahawks. However, it’s possible for the Seahawks to claim it.

Along with the Rams, the Seahawks pose the biggest threat to the Vikings playoff chances. Not only are the Seahawks tied with the Vikings right now, but they have possible avenues to winning an eventual tiebreaker over the Vikings. Additionally, their remaining schedule is very easy so they pose a strong threat to surpass the Vikings in win total as well. They play the Titans, Steelers, and Cardinals as their remaining opponents, the 7th easiest remaining schedule.

When it comes to tiebreakers, if the Seahawks lose to Arizona, then everything is easy. The Vikings would claim the tiebreaker over them via superior conference record in any scenario. However, should they beat Arizona, then things get more complicated, detailed below.

If the Vikings win any two games, they’d claim the tiebreaker over the Seahawks via superior conference record.

If the Vikings lose both games to Detroit, then the Seahawks claim the tiebreaker via superior record in common games between the teams.

If the Vikings lose to Green Bay and split with Detroit, then the teams would be tied in conference record and record in common games. A potential tiebreaker would then come down to strength of victory, which is also currently tied between the teams, but unlikely to remain tied at season’s end. The Vikings are a slight favorite to win this. This fairly fringe scenario is where things like rooting for the Packers to beat the Panthers starts becoming relevant.

Most Impactful Results to Root For In Games Between Other Teams

Week 16:

Titans over Seahawks: +6% improved chance for the Vikings to make the playoffs
Saints over Rams: +3%
Ravens over 49ers: The 49ers competing for a bye in week 18 is important.

Week 17:

Giants over Rams: +10%
Steelers over Seahawks: +7%

Week 18:

Cardinals over Seahawks: +7%
Panthers over Buccaneers: +4%
Bears over Packers: +4%
49ers over Rams: -9% if Rams win

Week 17 and 18 percentages will shift depending on the result of previous games.